2.1 Key Facts

    • The most recent population projections estimate the total Barnet population to be 389,400 by the end of 2017.
    • The borough’s overall population is projected to increase by approximately 19% between 2017 and 2032, taking the number of residents to 462,300.
    • The number of people aged 65 and over is projected to increase by 47% by 2032, close to three times the growth in the 0-15 and 16-64 age groups.
    • The Barnet population is projected to become increasingly diverse, as the Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic population is projected to increase from 39%, to 43% of the total Barnet population, between 2017 and 2032.
    • According to the 2011 census, by religion, Christianity is the largest faith in Barnet accounting for 41.2% of the total population. The next most common religions are Judaism (15.2%) and Islam (10.3%).
    • Barnet is an attractive place for international migrants, with the GLA estimating the net international migration into the borough to have exceeded 51,000 between 2004 and 2015.

2.2 Strategic Needs

    • Barnet is the largest Borough in London by population and is continuing to grow. The highest rates of population growth are forecast to occur around the planned development works in the west of the Borough, with over 121% growth in Golders Green and 115% in Colindale between 2017 and 2032.
    • The over-65 population is forecast to grow three times faster than the overall population between 2017 and 2032.
    • East Barnet, Finchley Church End, Garden Suburb and High Barnet are projected to experience higher levels of growth in the proportion of the populaiton aged 65 and over, as the number of residents aged 65 and over will grow between 2017–2032 to account for over 25% of the total ward population.
    • The borough will become increasingly diverse, driven predominantly by growth within the existing population. One of the key challenges will be meeting the diverse needs of these growing communities. Colindale, Burnt Oak and West Hendon have increasingly diverse populations that are more than 50% Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic (BAME). In 2017, over 52% of all 0-4 year olds in Barnet are from a BAME background, and this is forecast to increase.
    • The life expectancy of individuals living in the most deprived areas of the borough are on average 7.3 years less for men and 5.0 years less for women. By ward, Burnt Oak has the lowest average life expectancy from birth, at 79.2 years. It also has the lowest life expectancy from 65 years and over, at 18.2 years, closely followed by Coppets at 18.4 years.
    • The west of the borough has the highest concentration of more deprived Lower Layer Super Output Areas (LSOAs), with the highest levels of deprivation in Burnt Oak, Colindale, Childs Hills and West Hendon. The most deprived areas in the borough are situated in the LSOAs which contain Grahame Park and West Hendon estate, in Colindale. These are in the 10% most deprived LSOAs in England and 5% for London.
    • Barnet was ranked 10th and 2nd out of all London boroughs in relation to ‘life-satisfaction’ and ‘worthwhileness’ wellbeing scores in 2014/15, both of these indicators have increased since 2013/14.

    * A Lower Layer Super Output Area (LSOA) is a GEOGRAPHIC AREA. Lower Layer Super Output Areas are a geographic hierarchy designed to improve the reporting of small area statistics in England and Wales.

2.3 Total Population

    Table 2.1 shows mid-year population estimates from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), since the 2001 Census. Since 2001, the total Barnet population has grown by approximately 21%, with latest estimates putting the total Barnet population at 386,000 residents in June 2016, the most populous borough within London.

    Table 2.1: Total Barnet population*, 2001–2016

    Source: Office for National Statistics, mid-year population estimates, 2016. *Estimates have been rounded to the nearest 100.

     

2.4 Population Growth

    Figure 2.1 shows Barnet’s population growth from 2001 to 2015, compared to statistical neighbours and Outer London. Barnet experienced greater growth (19%) compared to Outer London (17%). When compared to eleven statistical neighbours, Barnet’s growth ranked as the fifth highest, with Hounslow’s (24%) population experiencing the greatest increase, and Merton’s (7%) – the lowest.

    Figure 2.1: Population growth between 2001 and 2015, for Barnet, statistical neighbours and Outer London

    Source: Office for National Statistics, mid-year population estimates, 2015

    Looking beyond 2015, from 2017 onwards, population projections from the Greater London Authority (GLA) provide an indication of the future size of the Barnet population, if current trends in fertility, mortality and migration continue.

    Table 2.2 shows the 2017 round of Borough Preferred Option (BPO) population projections produced by the GLA for Barnet. Barnet’s population is projected to grow by over 10% in the next seven years, up until 2025– an increase of close to 42,000 residents. There is a further rise of 8% projected from the base year (2017) in the following seven years, from 2025 to 2032–an increase of approximately 31,000 residents.

    Table 2.2: Barnet population* growth from 2017, up until 2032

    Source: Greater London Authority, Borough Preferred Option population projections, 2017. *Estimates have been rounded to the nearest 100

    Table 2.3 shows Barnet’s projected population compared to Outer London. Looking at counts in the first seven years, up until 2025, Barnet is projected to see a 3% greater increase compared to Outer London. This gap increases further, from 2025 up until 2032, as Barnet’s population is projected to increase by a further 9%, whereas Outer London’s growth is projected to increase by close to 5%.

    Table 2.3: Population growth* from 2017 up until 2032, for Barnet and Outer London

    Source: Greater London Authority, Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment population projections, 2015. *Estimates have been rounded to the nearest 100.

     

2.5 Population Counts and Projections by Ward

    GLA BPO projections also provide population counts at ward level. Table 2.4 shows that in 2017, Childs Hill was the most populous ward within the borough, containing 5.7% (22,366) of the total population. Compared to High Barnet, which is the least populous ward, containing 4.2% of Barnet’s total population (16,174).

    Table 2.4: Barnet population counts* and proportions, by ward, 2017

    Source: Greater London Authority, Borough Preferred Option population projections, 2017. *Estimates have been rounded to the nearest 100.

    Figure 2.2 shows Barnet’s most populous wards (greater than 19,000 residents) tend to be located in the South West and West of the borough, with wards in the North and North East having a smaller number of residents (less than 17,800).

    Figure 2.2: Barnet population by ward, 2017

    Source: Greater London Authority, Borough Preferred Option population projections, 2017

    There are substantial differences between the sizes (Area– km2) of wards within Barnet. Therefore, it is beneficial to view the population density of each ward, as this takes into account the population size by area. Table 2.5 shows Burnt Oak was the most densely populated ward in 2017, with an estimated 9,492 residents per square km; whereas, Totteridge was the least densely populated ward with an estimate of 1,891 residents per square km.

    Table 2.5: Barnet population* density (residents per km2), by ward, 2017

    Sources: Office for National Statistics, UK Standard Area Measurements, 2012; Greater London Authority, Borough Preferred Option population projections, 2017. *Estimates have been rounded to the nearest 100.

    Figure 2.3 displays Barnet’s population density geographically, showing the most densely populated wards (between 6,400 and 9,500 residents per km2) to be located in the West to South-West (Burnt Oak, Colindale and Hendon), South (Golders Green and Childs Hill), South-East (East Finchley, Woodhouse and Coppetts) and Central-South (West Finchley) of the borough. In contrast, wards in north (High Barnet), North West (Edgware) and central (Mill Hill and Totteridge) Barnet are less densely populated (between 1,890 and 3,420 residents per km2).

    Figure 2.3: Barnet population density (residents per km2), by ward, 2017

    Sources: Office for National Statistics, UK Standard Area Measurements, 2012; Greater London Authority, Borough Preferred Option population projections, 2017

    Table 2.6 shows the population change by ward, from the 2001 to 2011 Census. Unsurprisingly, all of Barnet’s wards saw an increase in population size, with the highest increase in population numbers experienced in Colindale and Hendon; which grew by 3,241 and 3,101 respectively. Underhill increased by only 187 people, making it the ward which had the smallest population increase (1.2%). In comparison, Colindale experienced a 23.4% increase in the number of residents between 2001 and 2011.

    Table 1.6: Barnet population change by ward, 2001-2011

    Sources: Office for National Statistics, 2001 and 2011 Census

    Table 2.7 shows population growth by ward, from 2011 through to 2017. Colindale was shown to have the highest population growth (47.2%) over this seven year period, with Edgware (18.6%), West Hendon (13.6%) and Mill Hill (12.3%) all growing by over 10%.

    Table 2.7: Barnet population* change by ward, 2011–2017

    Source: Greater London Authority, Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment population projections, 2015. *Projections for these figures are drawn from the GLA’s Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA) population projections, therefore counts will differ from those reported in Table 1.4 (which are based on Barnet’s actual future development plans); estimates have been rounded to the nearest 50.

    Table 2.8 provides a breakdown of the projected population growth by ward, for the periods 2017 –2023 and 2017–2032.

    • Colindale is projected to rise by 115.3% (23,050 residents) during the period 2017–2032, whereas Mill Hill will grow by 30% (6,050 residents).
    • Golders Green is projected to experience the highest rate of growth, close to 130% (an additional 25,510 residents).
    • Not all wards are projected to increase in population size over these periods, with the largest proportional decreases projected in Coppetts (-2.4%), a reduction of approximately 400 people) and Burnt Oak (-0.8%, a reduction of roughly 150 residents) between 2017–2032.

    Table 2.8: Barnet population* growth by ward, from 2017 to 2023 and 2017 to 2032

    Source: Greater London Authority, Borough Preferred Option (BPO) population projections, 2017. *Estimates have been rounded to the nearest 50.

    Figure 2.4 displays the percentage change in population, by ward, between 2017 and 2032. Wards in the west of the borough (Golders Green, Colindale, Mill Hill and West Hendon) are projected to experience population growth of approximately 30% of more. In line with these projections, one of the major driving forces of growth in the west of the borough is the planned development taking place, with the wards with the greatest projected increases in population, directly correlating with the planned regeneration in the localities of Colindale, Brent Cross and Cricklewood (as shown in Figure 2.5).

    Figure 2.4: Barnet population growth by ward, 2017-2032

     Source: Greater London Authority, Borough Preferred Option population projections, 2017

    Figure 2.5: Barnet areas undergoing the growth and regeneration programme

    Source: Barnet Council, Growth and Regeneration, Annual Report, 2015-16

     

2.6 Age and Gender Structure

    This section of the report looks at the Barnet population by age and gender. Ages are broken up by broad age categories (0-15, 16-64 and 65+), and by five year age bands (quinary age groups).

    Barnet’s latest population count by a broad age group structure is shown in Table 2.9 below, utilising GLA BPO projections for 2017. Approximately 21% of the population are under 16; 65% of legal working age (16-64) and 14% are aged over 65.

    Table 2.9: Barnet population counts*, by broad age groups, 2017

    Source: Greater London Authority, Borough Preferred Option population projections, 2017. *Estimates have been rounded to the nearest 100.

    In order to compare the proportion of the population in each broad age group in Barnet to the United Kingdom and Outer London, ONS Mid-year population estimates from 2015 have been used. Table 2.10 shows the counts and proportions of residents in each broad age group for Barnet, Outer London and the UK. Both Barnet (14%) and Outer London (11.5%) have a smaller proportion of residents aged over 65 compared to the UK (17.8%); in turn, having a larger proportion of the population under 16.

    Table 2.10: Population* by broad age groups, for Barnet, Outer London and the United Kingdom, 2015

    Source: Office for National Statistics, Mid-year population estimates, 2015. *Estimates have been rounded to the nearest 100.

    Figure 2.6 displays a more specific age group breakdown, for Barnet, Outer London and Greater London. In Barnet and Outer London, the largest proportion of the population is within the 30-34 and 35-39 age groups. This is also true for Greater London, although the proportion of the population in these groups is higher. In contrast, Barnet and Outer London have a higher proportion of the population aged 0-14, compared to Greater London. Looking at the age groups from 40-44 to 80-84, there are no notable differences in population proportions, however both Barnet and Outer London have negligibly higher proportions of residents in these five-year age groups up until 80-84.

    Figure 2.6: Percentage of the population in each quinary age group, for Barnet, Outer London and Greater London, 2017

    Source: Greater London Authority, Strategic Housing Availability Assessment population projections, 2015

    Looking at the population structure by gender (Figure 2.7), the ratio of females (196,600, 50.5%) and males (192,800, 49.5%) is relatively even. There are slightly higher numbers of males in the 0-19 age groups, accounting for 52% of the total for that age range; counts of males and females in the 20-64 age groups are relatively even, with men and women accounting for approximately 50% of the population in that age range. Looking at the over 65 population; these groups have a higher count of females compared to males, reflecting longer life expectancy, as females account for 58% of the population in this age range.

    Figure 2.7: Barnet population structure, population counts* per quinary age group, by gender, 2017

    Source: Greater London Authority, Borough Preferred Option population projections, 2017. *Estimates have been rounded to the nearest 100.

    2.6.1 Population Projections by Age

    Table 2.11 displays population projections by broad age structure for the periods 2017–2023, and 2017–2032. Growth is projected across all three age groups; however, it is not a uniform rise. Barnet’s population is projected to become proportionally older as the over 65 age group grows at a much faster rate than the 0-15 and 16-64 age bands. This is a significant concern for Barnet as it will likely drive up the dependency ratio within the borough.

    Table 2.11: Barnet population counts* and population change by broad age groups, 2017 to 2023 and 2017 to 2032

    Source: Greater London Authority, Borough Preferred Option Projections, 2017. *Counts have been rounded to the nearest 100.

    Figure 2.8 shows population growth in Barnet by broad age groups, from 2017 (base year) to 2032. Growth from base year in the over 65 population is shown to increase considerably more from 2019 to 2032 (41%), compared to the 0-15 (5%) and 16-64 (13%) age groups. The 0-15 population shows a rate of growth equal to that of the 16-64 group from 2017 to 2020, after which growth in the 0-15 population is seen to plateau, albeit increasing by 3.4% from the base year between 2020 and 2032. This pattern of growth suggests that families are moving to Barnet with children for school and choosing to stay into older age once children leave for university or begin careers outside Barnet.

    Figure 2.8: Barnet population growth by broad age structure, 2017–2032

    Source: Greater London Authority, Borough Preferred Option population projections, 2017

    Table 2.12 breaks down the over 65 population further, showing their projected proportion in each ward for 2017, 2023 and 2032. Garden Suburb and High Barnet currently have the highest proportion of residents over the age of 65– greater than 18.5%. In the long term, between 2017 and 2032, East Barnet and High Barnet are projected to see the largest increases in the proportion of residents over 65.

    Interestingly, the wards that are projected the highest levels of overall population growth over the period 2017-2032 (Golders Green and Colindale, Table 2.8), are also projected to see a fall in the proportion of residents who are aged 65 and over.

    Table 2.12: Barnet population projections and proportion for the over 65 population, by ward, for 2017, 2023 and 2032

    Source: Greater London Authority, Borough Preferred Option population projections, 2017

     

     

2.7 Ethnicity

    Table 2.13 displays the ethnic profile of Barnet in 2017. Compared to the Outer London estimate, Barnet has a higher proportion of people within the White ethnic group (White British, Other White and White Irish); 57% and 61% respectively. Barnet also has a higher proportion of the population within the Other, Other Asian and Chinese ethnic groups.

    Table 2.13 Population counts and proportions by ethnicity, for Barnet and Outer London, 2017 (ranked by number of residents in Barnet)

    Source: Greater London Authority, trend-based ethnic group projections, short-term migration scenario, 2015

    Figure 2.9 shows in comparison to statistical and geographical neighbours, Barnet has a relatively low Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic population (39%); whereas 65% of Brent’s population are Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic (BAME).

    Figure 2.9: Proportion of the population who are in Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic groups, for Barnet, statistical neighbours and Outer London

    Source: Greater London Authority, trend-based ethnic group projections, short-term migration scenario, 2015

    However, certain areas within the borough have a higher proportional Black, Asian and Minority (BAME) population than the Borough average. Data from the 2011 Census provides a breakdown of the ethnic profile of Barnet by ward (Figure 2.20).

    The Black, Asian and Minority population in Barnet varies significantly by ward, with the highest rates of Black, Asian and Minority populations generally found to the West of the borough. Based on the 2011 Census, Colindale, Burnt Oak and West Hendon all have populations where Black, Asian and Minority residents make up over half of the population; this is significantly above the borough wide average of 39%.

    Figure 2.10: Barnet Black, Asian and Minority ethnic population, by ward, 2011

    Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011

    Figure 2.11 shows that Barnet’s BAME population does not exceed the proportion of the White ethnic population in any age group, with the largest proportion of BAME residents (49%) being in the 0-4 age group. In contrast, the highest proportions of White ethnic residents occur in the older age groups, from 70-74 and onward, where over three quarters of the population are White ethnics.

    Figure 2.11 Barnet population proportions by White and Black, Asian and Minority ethnic (BAME) ethnicities and quinary age groups, 2017

    Source: Greater London Authority, trend-based ethnic group projections, short-term migration scenario, 2015 

    Table 2.14 shows Barnet’s projected population counts and proportions, by ethnicity, for 2017, 2023 and 2032. Barnet’s population is projected to become increasingly diverse, as the proportion of BAME residents increases from approximately 39% in 2017 to 43% in 2032 (roughly 39,900 additional residents). In contrast, the proportion of the population who are of White British ethnicity is projected to decrease, from approximately 41% in 2017 to 35% in 2032 (a reduction of approximately 2,100 residents).

    Table 2.14 Barnet population projections* and proportions by ethnic groups, 2017, 2023 and 2032

    Source: Greater London Authority, Ethnic group projections (long-term migration variant), 2015. *Projections have been rounded to the nearest 100

     

     

     

2.8 Religion

    The only reliable data set for religion within the borough comes from the 2011 Census results. Table 2.15 provides a breakdown of religion in Barnet in the 2001 and the 2011 Census.

    Over the ten years between the 2001 and 2011 Census, the religious makeup of Barnet has become increasingly diverse, with proportionate growth in most religions except Christianity and Hinduism. The largest increase was in the number of Muslims within the borough, which increased by 4.2%, although people with no religion had the second highest rate of growth and now account for 16.1% of the population.

    After Christianity, Judaism was the second most common religion, with Barnet continuing to have the largest Jewish population in the country.

    Table 2.15: Barnet population counts and proportions by religion, compared to London and England, 2011

    Source: Office for National Statistics, 2011 census 

    The Jewish and Muslim population make up over a quarter of the total population of Barnet. Figures 2.12 and 2.13 show the Jewish and Muslim population by ward

    • Wards situated in the North / Eastern areas of Barnet tend to have the highest proportions of Christians compared to other areas of the borough.
    • A large portion of the Jewish community is centred in the south of the borough, with the largest population in Garden Suburb (38.2% (6,090)), followed by Golders Green (37.1% (6,975)). Although, Edgware has the third largest Jewish community (32.6% (5,447)).
    • The largest proportion of the Muslim community is located towards the South West / South of the borough, with the largest population in Burnt Oak (18.4% (3,356)) followed by Colindale (19.3% (3,301) and West Hendon (17.1% (2,971).

     

     

2.9 Drivers of Population Growth

    Population change is determined by the number of births, deaths and migration in and out of the Borough.

    2.9.1 Natural Change

    Births and deaths are natural causes of population change. The difference between the birth rate and the death rate is called the natural increase, calculated by subtracting the death rate from the birth rate. The 2015 GLA projections provide trend based assumptions around the level of births and deaths within Barnet in the future.

    • There are 85,354 live births projected to occur within Barnet during the period 2017-2032.
    • Between 2015 and 2021, birth rates are projected to remain relatively stationary, with the number of rates increasing by an average annual rate of only 0.1% (an additional eight births per year).
    • After 2021, the number of births is projected to start marginally decreasing by an average 0.1% each year (a decrease of 8 births per year). Therefore, in 2030 there is projected to be 5,635 births in Barnet, 24 less than in 2015.
    • There are projected to be 40,954 deaths within Barnet between 2017 and 2032.
    • Up until 2020, the downward trend in mortality rates is projected to continue, with the number of deaths projected to reduce by an average -0.5% (12 less) each year.
    • In 2021 the number of deaths within the borough is projected to begin rising by an average 0.9% (an additional nine) each year, all the way up until 2030. This means that in 2030 there is projected to be 2,607 deaths within Barnet, 144 more deaths than in 2015.
    • This reduction in births and increased deaths means that there is a projected annual decline of -4.9% (156) in natural change over the period 2015-2030.

    2.9.2 Migration

    Migration consists of two elements ‘internal migration’ and ‘international migration’. Internal migration refers to people within a country moving to another location within its borders, whereas international migration refers to the act of moving across borders from one country to another. 

    Table 2.16 shows the internal, international and net migration within Barnet between 2004 and 2015.

    Table 2.16: Net migration (international and internal) in Barnet, 2004-2015

    Source: Greater London Authority, Net Migration and Natural Change, Region and borough, 2017

    Apart from 2009, net internal migration has been negative for every year since 2004. This means that more UK residents have been moving out of the borough, than into it. International migration has been positive throughout this period, with an average annual net migration of 4,275 people into the borough. Throughout the period 2004-2015, net migration has been positive. Although since 2009 the total net migration figure has begun to reduce from 4,484 to 2,180 in 2013.

    The latest GLA projections provide an indication of the future net migration levels in Barnet (Table 2.17)

    • During 2017–2023, there is a projected net migration of 16,947 people coming into the borough; this accounts for 52.4% of total population growth over this period.
    • Net migration is projected to rise from 2017 (1,684) to 2018 (2,667), then remain similar up until 2021 (2,641).
    • A decrease is then projected between 2022 (2,433) and 2025 (1,696).
    • Another rise in net migration is projected between 2026 (2,431) and 2029 (3,070), however a big drop-off is projected the following year, with only a net migration of 992 in 2030. A further decline is projected again in 2031 (125) and 2032, where net migration is negative (-19).

    Table 2.17: Barnet population projections and drivers of growth, 2017-2032

    Source: Greater London Authority, Borough Preferred Option population projections, 2017

    2.9.3 International Migration

    National Insurance registrations of overseas nationals can be used as an indication of the nationality of international migrants. Figure 2.14 displays the National Insurance registrations of overseas nationals into Barnet, for the 2015/16 financial year. In total there were 13,094 national insurance registrations of overseas nationals during this period, which accounted for approximately 5.0% of the Barnet working age group. Romanians accounted for 35% of overseas migrations (4,564 nationals), followed by Polish workers who accounted for 7.5%. All other groups of new migrant overseas workers were relatively small which is why they are not displayed.

    Figure 2.14: National Insurance Number (NIN) registrations of adult overseas nationals in Barnet, by country of origin, 2015/16

    Source: Department for Work and Pensions, National Insurance Number registrations of overseas nationals, 2016

     

     

2.10 Disability

    In the 2011 Census, residents were asked to assess whether their day-to-day activities were either ‘Limited a lot’ or ‘Limited a little’ because of a health problem or disability. These include any problem related to old age, which has lasted, or is expected to last at least 12 months (Figure 2.15).

    Figure 2.15: Proportion of the population who self-reported that their activity is ‘Limited a lot or a little’ by age, for Barnet, Outer London and England and Wales

    Source: Office for National Statistics, 2011 Census

    Figure 2.15 shows the proportion of people who reported their activity as limited, for Barnet, Outer London and England and Wales. As is expected, the proportion of people with disabilities increases as the age range increases. Across all ranges, Barnet has a lower proportion of people with disabilities compared to Outer London and England and Wales.

    Table 2.18 breaks this further down by gender, where there were more females aged 16 and above with disabilities than men. For those aged under 16, proportionally more males reported limitations in their day-to-day activities. This was the same across all geographical areas.

    Table 2.18: Proportion of population whose activity is ‘Limited a lot or a little’ by age and gender, for Barnet, Outer London and England and Wales, 2011

    Source: Office for National Statistics, 2011 Census

    • By Ward (Table 2.19), Underhill had the largest proportion of residents who reported having their day-to-day activities limited in some way, at 17.2%, with 8.2% of these residents assessing themselves as having their day-to-day activities limited a lot.
    • Even though Underhill has one of the smallest actual populations within the borough (15,915 in 2011), it still had the third largest number of people who reporting having their day-to-day activities limited a lot (1,311).
    • Burnt Oak and Childs Hill had the highest number of residents who assessed themselves as having their activities limited a lot, 1,499 and 1,390 respectively.

    Table 2.19: Proportion of the population whose activity is ‘Limited a lot or a little’ by Barnet ward, compared to the Barnet average, Outer London and England and Wales, 2011

    Source: Office for National Statistics, 2011 Census

    Figure 2.16 provides map of the Barnet population by residents who reported having their day-to-day activities limited a lot. As you can see from the map, this indicator appears less impacted by locality, with a fairly even spread across the whole borough.

    Figure 2.16: Proportion of Population Whose Activity is ‘Limited a lot’ by Ward, 2011

    Source: Office for National Statistics, 2011 census

    2.10.1 Types of Disability

    There is no definitive data on the amount of people with disabilities within the borough, although by applying national prevalence rates to the Barnet population it is possible to get an indication of this.

    Table 2.20: Estimated prevalence, and number of people in Barnet with a moderate or severe learning disability, by quinary age groups, 2017, 2023 and 2032

    Sources: Projecting Adult Needs and Service Information (PANSI) and Projecting Older People Population Information System (POPPI), 2014; Greater London Authority, Borough Preferred Option (BPO) population projections, 2017

    Table 2.20 shows the 15-19 age group has the highest proportion of people with moderate or severe learning disabilities (0.68%). In Barnet, the 35–39 and 30–34 age groups are estimated to have the highest number of residents with a moderate or severe learning disability in 2017. Due to the projected population increase in the 65 and overs, the number of people aged over 65 with moderate or severe learning difficulties is estimated to rise from 154 in 2017, to 222 in 2032; a rise of over 44%.

    Table 2.21: Estimated prevalence, and number of people in Barnet aged 18-64 with moderate or severe physical disability, by decile age groups, 2017, 2023 and 2032

    Sources: Projecting Adult Needs and Service Information (PANSI) and Projecting Older People Population Information System (POPPI), 2014; Greater London Authority, Borough Preferred Option (BPO) population projections, 2017

    Unlike learning disabilities, the prevalence of physical disabilities increases as the population becomes older (Table 2.21), with the highest rates of both moderate and serious disabilities located within the 55-64 age group. It is likely that people aged 65 and over will have higher rates of moderate or serious physical disabilities; however POPPI doesn’t produce this data.

    Table 2.22: Estimated prevalence, and number of people in Barnet with a mental health disorder, by gender, 2017, 2023 and 2032

    Sources: Projecting Adult Needs and Service Information (PANSI); Greater London Authority, Borough Preferred Option population projections, 2017

    Table 2.22 shows 12.5% of men and almost 20% of women aged 18-64 have some form of common mental health disorder. Apart from antisocial personality disorders, women have a higher prevalence across all types of mental health disorder compared to men.

    2.10.2 Disability and Employment

    The Office of National Statistics’ Annual Population Survey provides data on the working age population (aged 16 – 64) who are disabled. This includes people who are either disabled under the disability discrimination act (DDA) or who have a work-limiting disability, as a percentage of all people aged 16-64 years.

    Figure 2.17 shows in comparison to statistical neighbours, the UK and Outer London; Barnet is not statistically different, with just over 17% of the working age population who are either Economically active (EA) core (those who have a long-term disability which substantially limits their day-to-day activities) or work limiting disabled.

    Figure 2.17 Percentage of the population aged 16-64 who are either EA core disabled or work-limiting disabled, for Barnet, statistical neighbours, Outer London and the United Kingdom, 2016 (with 95% confidence intervals)

    Source: Office for National Statistics, Annual Population Survey, 2016. *EA Core disabled includes those who have a long-term disability which substantially limits their day-to-day activities

    Figure 2.18 gives a further breakdown by gender. Showing that for the majority of statistical neighbours, Outer London and the UK, woman aged 16-64 are more likely be EA core disabled or work limiting disabled

    Source: Office for National Statistics, Annual Population Survey, 2016

    Table 2.23 shows, by gender; Barnet has a higher rate of working age women (16.1%) who are disabled, compared to men (8.80%). Although this is in line with national and regional trends, the difference between genders is significantly higher in Barnet than in many other areas, with 83% more disabled women of a working age than men.

    Table 2.23: Percentage of the population aged 16-64, who are EA Core or Work-limiting Disabled for Barnet, compared to statistical neighbours, Outer London and the UK, 2016

    Source: Office for National Statistics, Annual Population Survey - Labour Force Survey, 2016

     

     

2.11 Life Expectancy

    Life expectancy is a good measure of the overall health of a population, and is often used as a comparison between different populations. People in Barnet continue to have better health than the national average and this is reflected in their life expectancy.

    Figure 2.19 displays the life expectancy from birth for men and women within Barnet for the period 2001-03 to 2013-15. In Barnet, as in the rest of the country, women have a higher average life expectancy than men.

    Figure 2.19: Life expectancy at birth, for Barnet males and females, 2001–03 to 2013–15

    Source: Office for National Statistics, statistics on life expectancy.

    Life expectancy can be measured in two ways; from birth and from age 65. Against regional and national comparators, Barnet is performing well across all these measures of life expectancy. However, this strong performance in life expectancy when compared to other areas masks the inequalities that exist between areas within Barnet.

    From 2009/2010 the London Health Observatory introduced the "Slope Index" of inequality. This is a single score which represents the gap in years of life expectancy between the least deprived and most deprived within a Borough, based on a statistical analysis of the relationship between life expectancy and deprivation scores. The latest data from the Public Health England, Epidemiology and Surveillance Team shows, on average, men who live in the 10% most deprived areas live 7.6 years less than those living in the least deprived decile. And for men who are disabled this is even worse, with life expectancies reducing by 9.2 years.

    • Whereas, women who live in the 10% most deprived areas most live on average 4.7 years less than those living in the least deprived decile. And disabled women will live 8.1 years, on average, less than a woman who isn’t disabled

    The GLA provides pooled figures on life expectancy by ward. Figure 2.20 displays the latest figures for Barnet life expectancy at birth and at age 65, by ward. Although many of the wards have life expectancies close to the borough average, there are some significant outliers.

    • Burnt Oak has the lowest life expectancy from birth, 79.2. This is 4.2 years behind the Barnet average and 8.1 years behind Garden Suburb, which has the highest age of 87.3.
    • Burnt Oak also has the lowest life expectancy at age 65, at 18.2 years. This is 3.3 years below the Barnet average of 21.5 and 6.1 years below Edgware, which has the highest average of 24.3.

    Figure 2.21 shows the geographic breakdown of life expectancy at birth, by Barnet ward.

    Source: Greater London Authority, Life expectancy at birth and age 65, by ward, 2016. Whiskers indicate 95% confidence interval limits.

    Figure 2.21 shows the geographic breakdown of life expectancy at birth, by Barnet ward.

    Figure 2.21: Barnet life expectancy by ward, 2010-14

    Source: Greater London Authority, Life expectancy at birth, by ward, 2016

     

2.12 Indices of Deprivation

    The Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD 2015) is the primary source for measuring deprivation in England and Wales. The Index is made up of seven categories known as ‘indices’, each for a distinct type or ‘domain’ of deprivation. These domains relate to income, employment, health and disability, education, skills and training, barriers to housing and services, living environment and crime, reflecting the broad range of deprivation that people can experience.

    • The 2015 update to the Index of Multiple Deprivation, ranks Barnet 157th out of the 326 local authorities in England and Wales for deprivation – just slightly below the national average of 163, where the authority ranked 1 is the most deprived. This is 19 places lower than the 2010 (176th) rankings.
    • Relative to other London boroughs, Barnet is ranked as 24th out of 33 local authorities. This is one place more deprived than 2010 (25th).

    Figure 2.22: National Rank of IMD 2015 scores for London local authorities

    Source: Office for National Statistics, Index of multiple Deprivation, 2015

    Figure 2.23 shows the 2015 IMD rank by Barnet LSOAs. The two most deprived LSOAs in Barnet are located around the West Hendon estate and the Grahame Park estate in Colindale. Both of these LSOAs are amongst the 10% most deprived LSOAs in England, and the top 5% most deprived LSOAs in London. In terms of rankings, the West Hendon LSOA is the 2,575th most deprived LSOA in England and the Colindale LSOA is the 2,623th. Both LSOAs have become more deprived since 2010, where they ranked 5,509th and 5,029th respectively.

    Figure 2.23: Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) rank by quintile, Barnet LSOAs, 2015

    Source: Office for National Statistics, Index of multiple Deprivation, 2015.

     

2.13 Wellbeing

    People with higher levels of wellbeing are likely to live longer, healthier and happier lives. They are also likely to have lower levels of ill health and recover quicker and for longer and have better physical and mental health (HM Government, 2010).

    Using data from the Annual Population Survey, the ONS measure personal wellbeing across four variables: life satisfaction; worthwhileness; happiness and anxiety. Each variable is scored out of 10. The highest levels of life satisfaction, worthwhileness and happiness include ratings of 9 or 10 out of 10. For anxiety, ratings of 0 or 1 out of 10 indicate the lowest levels of anxiety and therefore the highest wellbeing.

    Table 2.24 shows that in 2014/15; Barnet residents compared favourably to the Outer London average for Life Satisfaction (7.53), Happiness (7.42) and Worthwhileness (7.78). Anxiety was also lesser in Barnet residents (2.31) compared to the Outer London average at 2.92

    Table 2.24 Barnet wellbeing scores, 2011/12 to 2014/15

    Source: Office for National Statistics, Annual Population Survey, 2011/12 to 2014/15

    There isn’t a breakdown of each wellbeing variable by ward; however the ONS does provide an aggregated score, which is comprised of a combination of all four variables.

    Figure 2.24: Wellbeing score by ward

    Source: Office for National Statistics, Annual Population Survey, 2015